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    Home»Technical analysis»0% Inflation very soon?
    Technical analysis

    0% Inflation very soon?

    By TolbertiOctober 24, 2022No Comments
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    United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022
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    United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022 chart
    —————————————————————-
    Why do I think inflation will go down to 0%?
    Inflation is currently at the main trendline (established in 1920). This is a very strong resistance, and as a general rule, do not short a support or long a resistance. In other words, you don’t want to speculate on inflation increasing when inflation is at its critical point. FED cares about their charts, and they also want the charts to look great. That’s why they will push inflation down.
    —————————————————————-
    Why the Inflation Rate Matter?
    The inflation rate demonstrates the health of a country’s economy. It is a measurement tool used by a country’s central bank , economists, and government officials to gauge whether action is needed to keep an economy healthy. That’s when businesses are producing, consumers are spending, and supply and demand are as close to equilibrium as possible.

    A healthy rate of inflation is good for both consumers and businesses. During deflation, consumers hold on to their cash because the goods will be cheaper tomorrow. Businesses lose money, cutting costs by reducing pay or employment. That happened during the subprime housing crisis.

    In galloping inflation , consumers spend now before prices rise tomorrow. That artificially increases demand. Businesses raise prices because they can, as inflation spirals out of control.

    When inflation is steady, at around 2%, the economy is more or less as stable as it can get. Consumers are buying what businesses are selling.
    —————————————————————-
    How is inflation measured?
    There are several ways to measure inflation , but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the consumer price index. The CPI aggregates price data from 23,000 businesses and 80,000 consumer goods to determine how much prices have changed in a given period of time. If the CPI rises by 3% year over year, for example, then the inflation rate is 3%. The Fed, on the other hand, relies on the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This index gives more weight to items such as healthcare costs.
    —————————————————————-
    How do you hedge against inflation?
    Because inflation causes money to lose value over time, hedging against it is an important part of any sound investing strategy. Investors use a diversified portfolio with a variety of asset types to offset inflation and ensure that the overall growth of their portfolio outpaces it.
    —————————————————————-
    YEAR – INFLATION RATE YOY – FED FUNDS RATE – BUSINESS CYCLE (GDP GROWTH) – EVENTS AFFECTING INFLATION
    1929 0.6% NA August peak Market crash
    1930 -6.4% NA Contraction (-8.5%) Smoot-Hawley
    1931 -9.3% NA Contraction (-6.4%) Dust Bowl
    1932 -10.3% NA Contraction (-12.9%) Hoover tax hikes
    1933 0.8% NA Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) FDR’s New Deal
    1934 1.5% NA Expansion (10.8%) U.S. debt rose
    1935 3.0% NA Expansion (8.9%) Social Security
    1936 1.4% NA Expansion (12.9%) FDR tax hikes
    1937 2.9% NA Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) Depression resumes
    1938 -2.8% NA Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) Depression ended
    1939 0.0% NA Expansion (8.0% Dust Bowl ended
    1940 0.7% NA Expansion (8.8%) Defense increased
    1941 9.9% NA Expansion (17.7%) Pearl Harbor
    1942 9.0% NA Expansion (18.9%) Defense spending
    1943 3.0% NA Expansion (17.0%) Defense spending
    1944 2.3% NA Expansion (8.0%) Bretton Woods
    1945 2.2% NA Feb. peak, Oct. trough (-1.0%) Truman ended WWII
    1946 18.1% NA Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts
    1947 8.8% NA Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending
    1948 3.0% NA Nov. peak (4.1%)
    1949 -2.1% NA Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO
    1950 5.9% NA Expansion (8.7%) Korean War
    1951 6.0% NA Expansion (8.0%)
    1952 0.8% NA Expansion (4.1%)
    1953 0.7% NA July peak (4.7%) Eisenhower ended Korean War
    1954 -0.7% 1.25% May trough (-0.6%) Dow returned to 1929 high
    1955 0.4% 2.50% Expansion (7.1%)
    1956 3.0% 3.00% Expansion (2.1%)
    1957 2.9% 3.00% Aug. peak (2.1%) Recession
    1958 1.8% 2.50% April trough (-0.7%) Recession ended
    1959 1.7% 4.00% Expansion (6.9%) Fed raised rates
    1960 1.4% 2.00% April peak (2.6%) Recession
    1961 0.7% 2.25% Feb. trough (2.6%) JFK’s deficit spending ended recession
    1962 1.3% 3.00% Expansion (6.1%)
    1963 1.6% 3.5% Expansion (4.4%)
    1964 1.0% 3.75% Expansion (5.8%) LBJ Medicare, Medicaid
    1965 1.9% 4.25% Expansion (6.5%)
    1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War
    1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%)
    1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing
    1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office
    1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession
    1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls
    1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation
    1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard
    1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate
    1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high
    1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%)
    1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%)
    1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%)
    1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%)
    1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession
    1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut
    1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended
    1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending
    1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%)
    1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%)
    1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut
    1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash
    1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates
    1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis
    1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession
    1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates
    1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted
    1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act
    1994 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.0%)
    1995 2.5% 5.50% Expansion (2.7%)
    1996 3.3% 5.25% Expansion (3.8%) Welfare reform
    1997 1.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.4%) Fed raised rates
    1998 1.6% 4.75% Expansion (4.5%) LTCM crisis
    1999 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.8%) Glass-Steagall repealed
    2000 3.4% 6.50% Expansion (4.1%) Tech bubble burst
    2001 1.6% 1.75% March peak, Nov. trough (1.0%) Bush tax cut, 9/11 attacks
    2002 2.4% 1.25% Expansion (1.7%) War on Terror
    2003 1.9% 1.00% Expansion (2.9%) JGTRRA
    2004 3.3% 2.25% Expansion (3.8%)
    2005 3.4% 4.25% Expansion (3.5%) Katrina, Bankruptcy Act
    2006 2.5% 5.25% Expansion (2.9%)
    2007 4.1% 4.25% Dec peak (1.9%) Bank crisis
    2008 0.1% 0.25% Contraction (-0.1%) Financial crisis
    2009 2.7% 0.25% June trough (-2.5%) ARRA
    2010 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (2.6%) ACA , Dodd-Frank Act
    2011 3.0% 0.25% Expansion (1.6%) Debt ceiling crisis
    2012 1.7% 0.25% Expansion (2.2%)
    2013 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (1.8%) Government shutdown. Sequestration
    2014 0.8% 0.25% Expansion (2.5%) QE ends
    2015 0.7% 0.50% Expansion (3.1%) Deflation in oil and gas prices
    2016 2.1% 0.75% Expansion (1.7%)
    2017 2.1% 1.50% Expansion (2.3%)
    2018 1.9% 2.50% Expansion (3.0%)
    2019 2.3% 1.75% Expansion (2.2%)
    2020 1.4% 0.25% Contraction (-3.4%) COVID-19
    2021 7.0% 0.25% Expansion (5.9%) COVID-19
    2022 8.3% 3.25% Contraction (-1.6%) As of Sept. 21. 2022
    2023 2.7% (est.) 2.8% (est.) Expansion (2.2%) March 2022 projection

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